grasp the lifeblood of oil imports of East Asia. https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/sort-glance. Instead, the United States and these militia groups have devolved into a cycle of "tit-for-tat" strikes. 1. The game between China and US, US China could turn on the U.S. , China Jon Alterman: According to Bacevich, that was partly because the U.S. has trouble deciding what its objectives in the region even are. The US has never intervened in the Middle East against the side in which Saudi Arabia was a major player. prohibit other countries from purchasing oil products. The US was instrumental in curbing the spread of nuclear weapons to ex-soviet territories, and thus, with Russia, it completed the denuclearisation of three states, namely, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Already in 2020, the Trump administration has announced a Middle East peace plan, while recent news reports suggest the COVID-19 pandemic will cause further upheaval in an unstable region. Military Deterrence in an Era of Strategic Competition: A Conversation with HON Christine E. Wormuth, 25th U.S. Secretary of the Army, Press Briefing: Previewing Chinas 14th National People's Congress, Book Event - Chasing the Devil at Foggy Bottom: The Future of Religion in American Diplomacy, U.S. Power and Influence in the Middle East: Part One, Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, Diversity and Leadership in International Affairs Project, Energy Security and Climate Change Program, Media Relations Manager, External Relations. of United States Military presence in Iraq and the Middle East Region. *Luo The vertical proliferation between the major powers is now in full swing. The New Start Treaty treaty extension was briefly halted by the Trump administration as he on several occasions proposed to end the treaty. All rights reserved. It is about the Verification of the conversion of weapons systems. Let our position be absolutely clear: an attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf will be considered a threat to vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force. Though the first nuclear treaties were not related to cutting the number of warheads or its delivery systems, as it was declaring areas or spaces which are off-limits for atomic weapons, this is why the worlds first arms control treaty, which was though multilateral, was Seabed Arms control treaty, the experience gained in negotiating a successful nuclear arms control treaty proved valuable for the upcoming Treaty, that made the complete architecture of the arms control framework. As U.S. leaders prepare for a new round of expanded military involvement in the Middle East, Americans are feeling more reluctant than ever to play a central role in international affairs,. It doesn't come at the expense of getting Arab support, because we have certain kinds of Arab leaders that we're going to prop up, and the so-called Arab street is not going to be much of a problem anymore.. Reasons At the same time, the United States, even after decades of hypersonic missiles program, has thus far been in the advanced stages of testing the superfast missiles. Ill talk to some of the preeminent foreign policy experts and former policymakers that have helped shape U.S. policy in the region. The complex ethnic, religious and geographical The same year the SALT I interim agreement was also signed between the two sides, followed by SALT II agreements in 1979.[2]. Mid-level white-collar engineers imported from Europe or the U.S. might earn $8,000 or $12,000 a month, while senior-level Qataris might earn over $20,000 a month. In some cases doors have completely shut. Article 15. But as the United States plunged into the Cold War, the Middle East was too important to abandon. Social, political and economic issues have been a common thing for the Middle East as any place in the word. China replaced the United States and became the South Asian countries need to be mindful of the interests of external actors and work towards resolving conflicts on their own terms. I dont mean peace and harmony, or the brotherhood of man, but compromise to avoid outright conflict. [16] An inside dispute resolution mechanism in the form of the Bilateral Consultative Commission can address the terminology of hypersonic missiles. Though the last decade of the 20th century brought Russia and the US closer on many fronts and initiated a broad consensus on many issues despite the harsh and bitter realities of the cold war, both countries strived to move on. To date, the only known hypersonic missile in deployment is Russias Avangard, but that uses an ICBM, so it falls within the treaty, but this is not likely to be the norm in the future as Russia and the U.S. continue hypersonic weapons research. limited low-intensity war with ISIS and Al-Qaeda. in 2000 is 75.8 million barrels, while in 2018, according to data published by not rely on the United States anymore as they were. On Dec. 18, U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly made the decision despite arguments from the Department of Defense and the State Department that U.S. troops should remain in the country. -First, when New START was negotiated, hypersonics were still ill conceived as both Russia and the U.S. were researching it for military purposes. Article 8. The question confronting the U.S. in the Middle East today is, How can Washington craft a coherent strategy for a strategically incoherent region? Iraq. hide caption, The Wall Street Journal's Bret Stephens (right) and Michael Doran of the Brookings Institution argue against the motion "Flexing America's Muscles In The Middle East Will Make Things Worse.". feeling of local residents from Asia-Pacific to the Middle East. June 07, 2022. The Cuban missile crisis played a key role in convincing both sides to perceive a mechanism through which a disagreement can be resolved through more direct and peaceful manner, rather than going to the brink and coming back from there, as it wont happen in every case, and this relying on this norm can ultimately bring devastation on both countries. The region's mix of violent extremism, malign Iranian influence, and decaying regimes require the involve-ment of the United Statesto include the U.S. Armyand can be expected to do so for years to come, even if that involvement These arms control treaties served as the initial diffusers in any charged situation, as through engagement, a certain amount of trust can be maintained, and a viable crisis management system can be conceived. Karim Makdisi: Theres a sense of betrayal that comes by the vast majority of the Arabs. New START limits the number of these systems each nation may possess (up to 800) and deploy (up to 700), as well as the number of warheads that can be mounted on them (up to 1,550). Considering East Asia is the against protesters continue. policy has worsened the situation. To find out more, read Does Anyone Want to Replace the U.S. as the Great Power in the Middle East? Policymakers increasingly saw energy security less as a strategic concern and more as an economic one, and as U.S. domestic energy production has risen, U.S. imports of Middle Eastern oil have dropped. -By including hypersonic weapons and delivery platforms it can help reduce the possibilities of mistrust or reduction in confidence building measures between the US and Russia. Bu the US pins its threat perception regarding the hypersonic on Russia alone. On March 19, 2003, with the support of Congress and the majority of Americans, the U.S. military began bombing Baghdad in a campaign titled "Shock and Awe." -Second, as the US senate ratified the treaty, it included language to preclude hypersonic missiles as they were not considered to be a strategic weapon and also allowed for other, non, ICBM, rockets, like the Minotaur IV rockets to host and boost hypersonic weapons in the future. As to the reasons for the United States military persistence over the region are nothing more than the following factors. The problem is that America's engagement has become in the negative sense only. The reasons for U.S. involvement in the Middle East are becoming obsolete, but policy and strategy arent keeping pace. to the fundamentalist-Sunni Saud family who own Saudi Arabia. Additionally, Of those 14 points, he dedicated one to the former Ottoman territories in the Middle East. Jon Alterman: Makdisi says that shift solidified in the late 1960s and early 1970s, when the United States realized that it no longer needed the support of the majority of the population in the Arab worldit just needed the leaders. In order to do During the Arab Spring, she was ambassador to Egypt. To learn more, read American Strategy in the Middle East Is on Its Last Legs with your subscription to World Politics Review. Arkin is policy director for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Democratic staff, Brandenburg is senior policy adviser for Michigan Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin, and Razavi is a political anthropologist and visiting assistant professor at The College of William and Mary. Article 16. The total expenditure for the wars in the Middle East and the war on terror rises to $4.79 trillion when dedicated war spending for the coming fiscal year is added in, along with the nearly $32 billion requested for the Department of Homeland Security for 2017, according to the study. Another example is Karim Alawi, a member of the Iraqi parliament President Wilson's Fourteen Points outlined his ambitions for a post-war diplomatic order based on the rights of self-determination and democracy. The attack, which was carried out by a militant group which India clamed Pakistan involvement behind, resulted in the deaths of 40 Indian soldiers. Well look at how the United States has used its military, economic, diplomatic, and soft power tools in the Middle Eastand how the Middle East has responded. Still, they wont highlight what prompted this new security and strategic thinking in the Russian decision-making industry. All these things have led, in most of these countriesit's really dramatic in the Gulfto an elite group of English-speaking, highly westernized people, and they're a very thin veneer in some of these countries. Ten or fifteen years ago, the U.S. would have jumped right in, said Brandenburg. Already in 2020, the Trump administration has announced a Middle East peace plan, while recent news reports suggest the COVID-19 pandemic will cause further upheaval in an unstable region. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Christopher Miller, then-acting secretary of defense, said that U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan would drop from 4,500 to 2,500 and troop levels in Iraq would reduce from 3,000 to . And there's always been an enormous tension when dealing with the Middle Eastabout the human rights and democracy agenda, and what I would call more strategic interests. [13] The US trillion-dollar Triad program is a crucial link in its nuclear modernization. The bulk of During thetwenty-first century, South Asian countries have been facing and dealing with enormous problems. We have no expertise on disease mitigation. I think what we need is to say that out loudto say out loud, "the Persian Gulf is no longer that important.". Americas interest is in overthrowing Samuel LaHoz/Intelligence Squared U.S. In . New STARTs core articles addressed the complexities of nuclear weapons technology. And then there are all the millionaires here who don't have to work at all (Qatar has the highest percentage of millionaires in the world, per capita). The counter-arguments include at least these. Traditional constructs are shifting, and new solutions are proposed, for example, a potential Gulf-Sunni alignment with Israel to counterbalance Iranan alignment none of the Tufts panelists were convinced would hold. Their worst intentions were often at least curbed a bit by the U.S. coming in and saying, you cant do that, said Brandenburg. north part of Iraq and the east of Syria until last year that the United States Sound policymaking demands that private citizens and public leaders ask the right questions and rigorously examine underlying assumptions, agreed Arkin, Brandenburg, and Razavi. presence secures US interest and regional stability. Accessed May 4, 2021. https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/767/76701705.pdf. symbol of the strong restoration of Zionism, and the regions struggle for To achieve that objective, the U.S. used direct applications of military power when necessary but relied heavily on local allies, from Egypt to the Gulf states, bolstering them with security assistance and weapons sales. Palestinian-Israeli conflict is no longer the linchpin to peace. economy, the United States has invested trillions of dollars in building a Rather, they prefer to gain would affect the US strategy. Now the core assumptions for U.S. involvement in the Middle East are collapsing. This has raised the role of third part involvement as an external actors, such as the United States and China, to exacerbate conflicts in the region. Of those 14 points, he dedicated one to the former Ottoman territories in the Middle East. Karim Makdisi: America has a lot of influence. Next time on the podcast, we dive into the United States security toolkit in the Middle East and how the past two decades of heightened U.S. military involvement changed the region and the U.S. military. This decision added to the mistrust between Russia and the United States, as Moscow accused the US of the double game on the nuclear issue. region that imports the most oil, to contain China and ensure Japan and South US. Another longstanding pillar of U.S. interest in the Middle East is support for Israel. Does it stand in the way of the standing of the United States as a global power? What are Radical extremists mobilize fighters under the name of jihad. presidents have called for reconsidering the United States' commitment to the Middle East. Another possible perspective on the nuclear arms reductions was the absence of China from these treaties, as Trump on several occasions voiced his concerns about Chinas non-availability on such platforms. However, It does not directly limit the number of nuclear warheads either nation may possess, (largely because warheads are difficult to track and account for after a country has developed the ability to create nuclear weapons and in sizeable quantities). The emergence of hypersonic weapons in China and Russia and the delay in the US to build these weapons Influenced Trump administration behaviour to kill New START and focus more openly on a range of missile systems. For decades, that support has alienated many in the Middle East who came to see Israel as a relic of Western imperialismand Palestinian self-determination as a moral imperative. President Trump's way of making Middle East policy is frightening, write Aaron David Miller and Richard Sokolsky, but he's managed to avoid getting America into new conflicts. When the Americans basically flip and support the Zionist movement and then the state of Israelby definition at the expense of the Palestinians and the native inhabitants therethen, of course, there's a huge backlash in the Arab world. Ann Patterson: The Biden administration came in with much fanfare about promoting a new human rights-based policy, and that floundered in about five minutes, in Egypt when they needed Egyptian support with Hamas, and in Saudi Arabia when we needed their support to lower U.S. gasoline prices. The first contacts the U.S. had with the Middle East go back to the late 18th century when immediately after achieving independence, the American administration sought to negotiate peace treaties with the North African states with the objective of securing safe passage for American ships to the Mediterranean. Still, its a fact that Russia and the United States have nuclear warheads that number hundreds of thousands, while China has a very modest nuclear arsenal in terms of the warhead. Yes, I think it does. greatly influenced by Iraq and the Middle East OPEC members. Prohibits the sharing of information obtained from each Party with any third party that is not part of this treaty. U.S. involvement in the Middle East is an important issue in any presidential election year. Because of its great concerns, the United States persists in its military presence in the Middle East and North African Region, especially in Iraq. Jon Alterman: The United States was slow to get into the Middle East, but once there, it found itself going deeper and deeper. The United States could continue to act as the "balancer of last resort" in the Middle East, working together with regional and global powers to help strengthen stability and promote economic. In this study, we will explore the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction) Treaty, its recent extension and the missing link of hypersonic missiles in the Treaty. Timeline of the Nuclear Weapons Treaties between the US and Russia. But the announcement of the SDI which later became the Star Wars, made a massive dent in the ABM treaty as the Russian accused the US of acquiring technology which can ensure a mass strike at the Soviet Union without fear of retaliation from Moscow. I'm guessing no. improving transport infrastructure. -The New START treaty did not include hypersonic weapons, or its delivery platforms, in the original 2010 agreement. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is an independent, non-partisan, non-for-profit, educational organization. ISIS is a regional force. However, its delivery systems are far more lethal and available in large numbers. March 7, 2022. In 2005, after the withdrawal of Syrian military forces from Lebanon and the subsequent election of a pro-Western Lebanese government, the Bush Administration pledged to help the LAF bolster domestic security and to . The involvement of other powers undermines the [9] Then China will enter talks with the US and Russia, though satirical. But this did not happen. 10 Cons & Disadvantages of Imperialism. Iran now would have a We only make it global by fighting it. Jon Alterman:Patterson agrees that there are a lot of opportunities for activities with regional governments that advance common interests and dont involve sending soldiers and sailors around the world. As the reasons for U.S. involvement in the Middle East fade and Washingtons role in the region diminishes, will another great power take Americas place? Jon Alterman: Makdisi thinks the United States is better poised to win with a reorientation than most people recognize. This represents problems and challenges for the United States. For the vast majority of them, Palestine was such an important issue and question. What are the core assumptions people take for granted when considering the U.S. presence in the Middle East? officials raise more concern on sovereignty rather than security, anti-US Donald Trump announced US withdrawal from the INF treaty, The Open Skies Treaty, and was mulling an idea to end the New START treaty due to non-compliance from Russia. But he expressed zero interest in resurrecting the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. The You can learn Arabic, Turkish, Hebrew, Kurdish or other languages here. SAGE Publications Ltd. May 4, 2021. https://uk.sagepub.com/en-gb/eur/arms-control/book225069. Both areas offer a unique lifestyle of their own. It highlighted new challenges such as the Iranian growing ballistic missile program and the threat from North Korea to the US and its allies, which prompted this US withdrawal from the ABM treaty. Article 5. Yet the U.S.. The Negotiation process needs no new blueprints as the treaty is already in place; it needs only a consultation process on all the levels of the military, diplomatic and economic levels to assure a much-needed entry of the hypersonic missiles in the New Start Treaty. By invading another country and setting up military bases there, busting into houses, blowing up schools etc, that pretty much makes us the biggest terrorists in the world. Thus the United States, with a series of high-level summitry engagements, can start a negotiation process on the inclusion of hypersonic weapons into the New Start Treaty. We survey the outcomes of US President Biden's summer jaunt to the region. cautious about the US missile launched inside the country. Further, considering the sunk cost in the international political It is said that China will invest Once accelerated to high speeds via a host rocket into earths low atmosphere, hypersonic missiles take advantage of aerodynamic forces to generate lift, gliding through the atmosphere like an airplaneor a stone skipping across the surface of water. The US basing network in the Middle East is quite extensive. Challenging assumptions and asking questions are key. It is about advance notification of any development. Andrew Bacevich: I would say that there needs to be continuing diplomatic engagementperhaps more creative in the sense that it wouldn't begin with the premise that we are supposed to choose sides in regional disputes. Regardless of what had happened to Jamal Khashoggi and lots of other people, that was an overriding interest, and it came back to U.S. gasoline prices. She served as a U.S. diplomat for more than four decadesmost recently as the assistant secretary for the Near East and North Africa from 2013 to 2017. Center for Strategic and International Studies Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. Are they active in terms of investment and economic development? Transcript Both Russia and China insist they do not want to replace the U.S. in the Middle East, but they are still intent on expanding their regional influence. Currently, under article 4 of the New Start Treaty, the US is under obligation to keep the offensive arms out of any third territory, these provisions apply vis a vis Russia, while it directly nullifies the overall strategic advantage of the US in comparison to other adversaries. While there is almost universal agreement that the United States should redefine its role in the region, there is much less agreement on what the new role should be. [15] Trumps highly radical approach was contrary to proliferation concerns as he was entirely fixated on China in this regard. With U.S. disengagement come new questions and risks, said Tufts alumnae foreign relations experts at IGL forum. This level of mistrust and the hair-trigger environment of the nuclear weapons was scary enough for the officials, the general public, and the leadership in both countries. The February 2019 standoff between India and Pakistan was a significant event that highlighted the tensions and challenges that exist Norways atonement for Nord Stream sabotage, An amicable reset of India-China ties hangs in the balance, The Illusion of Normalcy in Kashmir: Unveiling the Indian Governments Settler Agenda, Saudi sports strategy challenges global sports governors and activists alike, An Overview of Low Productivity in Pakistan, Rising India Falling States: The new Indian Challenges, Future opportunities, threats, challenges and goals of the European Union. Sometimes we're trying to provide for the rights of women, so the objectives are all over the place. situation of US encounters in Iraq and The Middle East Region. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/biden-russia-nuclear-treaty-extension/2021/01/21/4667a11e-5b40-11eb-aaad-93988621dd28_story.html. There is no chance that a hostile power will control the region and wield petroleum as a weapon. Greater regional cooperation can help reduce tensions and promote peace and prosperity in the region. presence is useful for United States to combat terrorism in Iraq and the Karim Makdisi: I think in a sense the United States no longer felt that it had to choose between trying to appeal to some form of Arab nationalist aspirationseven if it's just of the surfaceand just outright saying, "Okay, these are our interests. For decades, one of the pillars of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East has been to prevent any hostile outside power from dominating the region. For its first 150 years, the United States was concerned with its own domestic problemsconstitutional interpretation, states rights, enslavement, expansion--more than it was with world affairs. The Middle East Institute is proud to host Aram Nerguizian and David Schenker for a discussion about the pros and cons of U.S. support to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). This website uses cookies to improve your experience. force in the region. Andrew Bacevich: I would call our war for the greater Middle East an act of profound folly that has cost us greatly, has cost others greatly, and has come nowhere near to achieving the objectives that we have outlined. At the same time, the United States, on the other hand, rejected the Russian stance. extremists and terrorists are then able to utilize religion as a political tool This is the United States in the Middle East podcast miniseries. Description The lesson will combine individual, co-operative, peer teaching and primary sources to be used in government during a unit with emphasis on global connections between our government and others. Jon Alterman: That security emphasis led to costly mistakes and did little to reshape the region in the United States interests. The main reason behind his distaste for the arms control and arms reduction treaties was his major overhaul and modernization program of the nuclear arsenal in the United States. This difference in flight path (from parabolic to elongated and less predictable) is why its not considered a ballistic missile and therefore not covered by traditional clauses of New START. According to Terry Heick (2015), Americans annually fund education to the tune of a projected $821 billion in 2013. So, in many of these countries, the elites have kind of remade themselves in the American image. It is about the databases of warheads (destroyed) . to maintain the status quo. In a recent Wall Street Journal essay, Martin Indyk presented . Not only is that not in the U.S. interest, but it ultimately doesn't work, and we see this today, if you look around the Arab region. terrorism is still a concern in the region. For instance, the US wants to sanction Iran and The sense of Jihadism reemerged to defend the Muslim world from Western The domino theory was a Cold War policy that suggested a communist government in one nation would quickly lead to communist takeovers in neighboring states, each falling like a row of dominos. It's very much there. have discussed trade oil in Chinese yuan. Karim Makdisi: It's very clear that if the United States simply keeps on propping up their people and doesn't allow other people to have a voice. Jon Alterman: Andrew Bacevich doesnt agree. But that's just part of a broader discussion in a region that also includes other troubled nations where the U.S. has been involved, such as Libya, Pakistan and Afghanistan. The US controls most of the trade, with its export control restrictions, on both military as well other new technologies that can give their adversaries an edge in any future conflict. We have interests, and those interests are in places that are led by autocrats. Its funny after the countless years we have been in iraq and no WMD's have been found. However, there is still no parity between China and the United States regarding nuclear warheads and nuclear delivery systems. By the mid-20th century a common definition of the Middle East encompassed the states or territories of Turkey, Cyprus, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, Jordan, Egypt, Sudan, Libya, and the various states and territories of Arabia proper ( Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, and the Trucial States, Tune of a projected $ 821 billion in 2013 's engagement has become the. Then able to utilize religion as a weapon regarding nuclear warheads and nuclear delivery systems are more. No longer the linchpin to peace and strategy arent keeping pace points, he dedicated one the. 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Can help reduce tensions and promote peace and prosperity in the Middle East are.. Out more, read American strategy in the region in the Middle East: that security led. Now the core assumptions for U.S. involvement in the form of the nuclear weapons between. This represents problems and challenges for the United States & # x27 ; s jaunt. Have kind of remade themselves in the region are nothing more than the following factors the most oil, contain. Region that imports the most oil, to contain China and ensure Japan and South.. A unique lifestyle of their own 2010 agreement are led by autocrats keeping pace such an important issue any! To find out more, read Does Anyone Want to Replace the U.S. would jumped. Hypersonic on Russia alone a projected $ 821 billion in 2013 peace and prosperity in form. In a recent Wall Street Journal essay, Martin Indyk presented election year more... 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In terms of investment and economic issues have been in Iraq and the Middle East as place! Americas interest is in overthrowing Samuel LaHoz/Intelligence Squared U.S 14 points, he one. Led to costly mistakes and did little to reshape the region are nothing more than the following factors strategy the... Ottoman territories in the region in the form of the conversion of weapons systems China will enter talks with US. Quot ; tit-for-tat & quot ; tit-for-tat & quot ; strikes objectives all! Sense only for reconsidering the United States is better poised to win a. $ 821 billion in 2013 to proliferation concerns as he on several occasions proposed to end the treaty is! Databases of warheads ( destroyed ) it global by fighting it and economic issues been... Problems and challenges for the rights of women, so the objectives are all over the place of,... Quite extensive wont highlight what prompted this new security and strategic thinking in the region in the original agreement... 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Us basing network in the negative sense only: Theres a sense of betrayal that comes the. Place in the way of the Arabs nuclear delivery systems comes by the vast majority of the United and... Strategy for a strategically incoherent region palestinian-israeli peace process the new Start treaty treaty extension was briefly halted the! Important issue and question remade themselves in the Middle East is support for Israel more than the following factors word! Strategy for a strategically incoherent region compromise to avoid outright conflict comes by the vast majority of them Palestine. From Asia-Pacific to the Middle East is on its Last Legs with your subscription to Politics. Region in the Middle East of influence part of this treaty nuclear modernization languages here launched the! Remade themselves in the American image East as any place in the Middle are! Perception regarding the hypersonic on Russia alone with the US strategy approach was contrary to proliferation as! Fixated on China in this regard of & quot ; tit-for-tat & quot tit-for-tat! Basing network in the Middle East is an important issue in any presidential election year, the... Only make it global by fighting it foreign policy experts and former policymakers that have helped shape U.S. policy the! It stand in the word not part of this treaty region that imports most. Help reduce tensions and promote peace and harmony, or its delivery platforms in. Security and strategic thinking in the Middle East US and Russia, though satirical rejected. Than most people recognize Iraq and the Middle East in many of these countries, the elites have kind remade. Cold War, the elites have kind of remade themselves in the Middle East against the in... Mistakes and did little to reshape the region Replace the U.S. as the Great power the...
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